马蒂斯会见印尼外长蕾特诺图/美国国务院图
导读：
2018年1月22日，美国国防部长马蒂斯开始对印尼和越南为期一周的访问。马蒂斯此行有哪些值得关注的重点？其又会对地区形势产生怎样的影响？对此，盘古智库研究员魏李萍分享了她的观点。
本文英文版首发于1月29日《环球时报》英文版，英文标题为 "Mattis’ trip to Asia meant to strengthen negotiating stance with China"。
文章首发于《环球时报》英文版
US Defense Secretary James Mattis met Indonesia's Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu and President Joko Widodo during his week-long trip to Indonesia and Vietnam starting January 22. They talked about the North Korean nuclear issue, anti-terrorism and maritime cooperation.
Anti-terrorism has been one of the important subjects during Mattis' overseas visits since he took office. However, Western media has focused more on sovereignty-related issues, saying that the priority of Mattis' visit is maritime defense cooperation and "free navigation," which obviously targets China.
It is no secret that the focus of US' Asia-Pacific strategy is not anti-terrorism, but the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. The Donald Trump administration's new National Security Strategy released in late 2017 cites China and Russia as "strategic competitors." It accuses China of threatening the sovereignty of other countries in the Indo-Pacific region with hard-line steps and resisting US intervention in an attempt to build a non-democratic and oppressive world alien to American values and interests.
The US National Defense Strategy released days before Mattis' trip makes it clear that "Inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in US national security." It outlines 11 defense objectives, such as sustaining Joint Force military advantages, both globally and in key regions (Indo-Pacific); maintaining favorable regional balances of power in key regions and establishing an unmatched National Security Innovation Base. The report drew worldwide attention. It's clear to all that Mattis' Southeast Asia trip, as part of the US national defense plan, intends to counter China's strategic weight.
The US under Trump has not been conservative in its military and diplomatic strategies. The US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" steadily strengthened the country's military influence in the Asia-Pacific region last year.
As China becomes the primary competitor of the US today, Washington conducts multilateral deployment and keeps the Asia-Pacific issue alive, forming a network to contain China.
On military affairs and economic development, Trump and Mattis are not as reckless as they appear to be. Instead, they are cautious in dealing with China.
While Chinese Ministry of National Defense had said in April 2017 that it will welcome Mattis to China as early as possible, it was until this month that the US defense department spokesman disclosed that Mattis would visit China during spring in an interview with Japan's Kyodo News Agency.
China is at the core of US' Indo-Pacific strategy. Faced with differences in Sino-US defense strategy, Trump and Mattis applied the trading mind-set in dealing with Beijing in an attempt to have an upper hand in negotiations. As long as Trump keeps the focus on the Indo-Pacific, Mattis would make extensive deployments to muddy the waters and prepare for negotiating with China.
While lashing out at Beijing, Trump and Mattis still intended to maximize cooperation with China given the two countries' complex common interests. Ryacudu told the Raisina Dialogue 2018 in New Delhi that tensions in the South China Sea are easing and should continue to be so for the sake of common interests. He added that they need to appreciate China's readiness to work together in strengthening regional security in Asia.
In the circumstances, avoiding a zero-sum game and realizing dynamic strategic balance and cooperation in the future is the real concern of both countries.
Mattis' visit to China during the spring will be an opportunity for pushing forward Sino-US defense exchanges. To keep pace with the Trump administration in the "smart war" with the US, China needs to stay focused in its strategy, protect its fundamental interests and help in development of the region and the world.
China needs to make the US realize that both countries are the beneficiaries, contributors and participants in the current international system, rather than geopolitical manipulators and saboteurs.
参考译文
2018年1月22日，美国国防部长马蒂斯开始对印尼和越南为期一周的访问。23日，马蒂斯分别会见印尼防长里亚米扎尔德和印尼总统佐科之后，在联合记者会上称，双方就朝核问题、反恐、海事合作进行交流，打击恐怖主义是双方此次会谈的一个重点。
回顾马蒂斯出任美国防长一年以来的出访，多以“反恐”为议题。然而，各主流媒体对此次马蒂斯访问东南亚的反应却与官方口径大相径庭，将关注点聚焦在主权问题而非反恐之上，指出美国防长此行重点在于海事防务合作和“自由航行”，大有针对中国之意。
一、美国防长东南亚行——印太地区战略制衡术
美方的亚太战略重点不在反恐而在印太均势与美国干预，这已不是什么秘密。
2017年底特朗普政府发布的《国家安全报告》称，中国和俄罗斯是美国的“战略竞争者”，指责中国以军事等强硬行动威胁印太地区他国主权并拒止美国介入、试图构建一个与美国价值观和利益格格不入的非民主的、压迫性的世界。就在此次出访的前几天，2018年1月19日，马蒂斯就任美国国防部长一周年时发布的《2018国防战略报告》，开篇就说“国与国之间的战略竞争而不是反恐，将是现阶段美国国家安全的首要关注。”报告分列了未来美国防部11大国防目标：在全局和关键地区保持美军的军事优势（以印太地区为重点），在关键地区保持有利于美国的力量平衡，美国要保持或者建立无与伦比的国家安全创新基地。
这份报告引起了世界媒体的普遍注意。马蒂斯东南亚行自然是其国防战略布局的一部分，是针对中国部署的战略制衡。马蒂斯之心，路人皆知。
二、“马特配”配合默契，美对印太军事政治影响显著
美国在印太地区动作频繁，势必引进中方的强烈反应。马蒂斯明知其后果而故意为之，背后是美国当局的整幅印太军事战略图。
特朗普执政时期，美国的军事与外交战略并不保守。在亚太问题上，马蒂斯提出“印太战略”，使得美国在亚太地区的军事影响力在最近一年中呈稳中有进的态势。在中国成为美国首要竞争对手的今天，美国在对亚太问题的处理上多边部署和积极活动，是针对中国而精心织就的遏制之网。
在军事与国家发展战略层面上，特朗普和马蒂斯并不是表面上看起来的那样鲁莽，相反，在处理中国问题上他们慎之又慎，将与中国的接触放到最后。
三、“春天的会面”——美中防长如何唱好《智斗》？
早在2017年4月，中国国防部就表示欢迎美国国防部长马蒂斯尽早访华，然而美国防部发言人在2018年1月接受日本共同社采访时，才侧面透露出将于春季访华的消息。这也是一种基于交易思维，试图获取主动权的手段。
中国是美国印太战略的核心。面对中美国防战略存在的大量分歧，特朗普和马蒂斯选择了侧面试探强势打压、正面迂回的战术，是特朗普交易思维在国防与军事领域的体现，目的是为双方的谈判谋求更高的价码。马蒂斯上任一年来与特朗普形成了默契的配合，但凡特朗普在印太地区有重要活动，马蒂斯都会为其做大量的提前部署，其深层目的就是把水搅浑，为与中国的谈判做准备。
中美之间错综复杂的共同利益决定了两国不可能割席断交，无论是特朗普还是马蒂斯，在猛烈抨击中国之余，都表示将与中国寻求最大程度的合作。而接受美国在印太地区扩张影响力，也不是当地国家的最佳方案。1月18日，印尼防长里亚米扎尔德在印度举行的“瑞希纳对话会”上指出，南海局势已经降温，愿意维护地区共同利益，并对中国更加开放的善意及合作维护亚洲区域安全架构的意愿表示感谢。
在这样的局势之下，未来如何避免中美之间的零和博弈、实现动态的战略平衡与合作才是中美双方真正关心的内容。
美防长马蒂斯的春季访华，是推进中美两国防务交流的一个契机。要想在跟特朗普政府的“智斗”中不落下风，中国需要在博弈之中保持战略定力，保护本国的根本利益、实现地区与世界和平发展。中国需让美国认识到，中美两国都是现行国际体系的受益者、贡献者和参与者，而非地缘政治的利用者、操纵者、破坏者。“德不孤，必有邻。” ■
文章首发于1月29日《环球时报》英文版
责任编辑：宋勉
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