自2016年当选总统以来，唐纳德·特朗普就开始单枪匹马，到处挥舞关税大棒以减少美国的贸易逆差。
Since becoming president in 2016, Donald Trump has been on a one-man mission to cut America's trade deficit through the use and threat of tariffs.
关税是“特朗普经济”的支柱，是对付那些他认为攫取了美国经济利益的对象的手段，也是团结自己的支持者的方法。特朗普敲锣打鼓，摇旗呐喊，为2020年再次当选不断鼓劲助威，嗓门也比以往任何时候都要响亮，向他的支持者们证明他的关税政策正在见效。
Tariffs are the bread and butter of Trumponomics, a way for him to target those he perceives as taking advantage of the American economy and give his supporters something to rally behind. As his push for re-election in 2020 intensifies, Trump has gone hammer-and-tong, shouting louder and brasher than ever before to assure voters that his tariffs are working.
在5月份的一次集会上，特朗普给群众打气，宣称美国国库将收回1000亿美元从中国征收的关税。在奥兰多，特朗普吹嘘关税有助于美国实现与韩国，墨西哥和加拿大的贸易协定。他还有恃无恐地让充满期待的群众放宽心，相信他的关税政策正在奏效，更重要的是要相信关税政策正在让美国变得再次伟大。
At a rally in May, Trump pumped up the crowd by claiming tariffs from China would bring $100 billion back into the U.S.'s coffers. In Orlando, he boasted that tariffs had helped bring about trade deals with the Republic of Korea, Mexico and Canada. He has blasely reassured expectant crowds to trust that his tariffs are working and most importantly, are making America great again.
▲ 2019年6月29日，中国国家主席习近平在日本大阪会见美国总统特朗普。
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with U.S. President Donald Trump in Osaka, Japan on June 29, 2019.
目前，中国是受特朗普关税政策打击面最广的国家，当前征税的中国货物价值2500亿美元。大阪G20峰会上习近平主席和特朗普的会面，结束了两国长时间的胶着状态，再次开启中美对话。但是美国在关键问题上出尔反尔，导致谈话始终不能达成一致。
China has by far been the most comprehensively targeted country by Trump, with tariffs currently in place on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods. Talks between the two countries have restarted after a lengthy stand-still thanks to President Xi Jinping's meeting with Trump in Osaka at the G20, but a deal is still far from being agreed after backtracking from the U.S. on key issues.
但在过去几个月，美国对其他国家发出的关税威胁和潜在的贸易争端也在加剧。
But over the past few months the threat of tariffs and possible trade disputes with other countries, has intensified.
▲ 瑞典家具公司宜家将于2019年12月关闭其在美国唯一的生产基地，并将其迁往欧洲以降低成本。
Swedish furniture company Ikea will close its only manufacturing site in the United States in December, 2019 and move it to Europe to reduce costs.
墨西哥担心出口到美国的货物被征收5%的关税，因而不得不执行新规以制止非法移民入境美国；而越南也已经拉起了警报，因为特朗普给它贴上了这样的标签——在占美国经济便宜方面“几乎是所有国家中最恶劣的施虐者”。
Mexico was forced into implementing new rules on curbing illegal immigration in fear of 5 percent tariff on all it exports to the U.S., whilst Vietnam has been on alert after Trump branded them "almost the single-worst abuser of everybody" with regards to taking advantage of the American economy.
7月伊始，在表示“无法接受”印度对美经济政策后，特朗普威胁印度可能会受到贸易禁令。同时，特朗普还威胁欧盟，美国将会对多达40亿美元的欧盟产品实施关税，以回应欧盟的客机补贴。
At the start of July, he heightened fears India could be subjected to a transfer embargo after labelling its economic policy to the U.S. as "no longer acceptable", at the same time as threatening the European Union with tariffs on up to $4 billion of its goods in response to perceived EU aircraft subsidies.
近日，法国及其科技税又撞上了枪口，特朗普下令根据“301条款”调查该税收，这与审查中国贸易行为的程序完全一致。
Most recently, France and its technology tax have come under fire, with the president ordering a "Section 301" investigation into the tax, the same procedure as the one deployed to examine China's trade practices.
该调查针对的是法国将对收入超过7.5亿欧元，其中在法国营收超过2500万欧元的科技公司征收3%的税。法国方面估计，美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽为期1年的调查将导致美国对法国征收报复性关税或对法国产品禁运。
The investigation will look into the 3 percent levy France will now place on tech companies with revenues of over €750 million—of which €25 million is generated in France—and there is an expectation in France that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer's one-year investigation will result in tariffs or embargoes on French goods in retaliation.
莱特希泽解释道：“美国很担心数字服务税……不公平地针对美国企业。”
"The United States is very concerned that the digital services tax ... unfairly targets American companies," Lighthizer explained.
“[特朗普]指示我们调查这项立法，以确定它是否存在歧视或不合理的地方，是否给美国企业增加负担或者限制了其发展，”莱特希泽进一步解释说。
"[Trump] has directed that we investigate the effects of this legislation and determine whether it is discriminatory or unreasonable and burdens or restricts United States commerce," Lighthizer further explained.
特朗普的全球关税计划美中不足的是其尚未取得胜利。尽管特朗普宣称对墨西哥的关税威胁加速了墨西哥帮助美国遏制非法移民入境，但是该计划仍没有取得任何经济上的成就。
What is missing from Trump's world tariff plan is an outright win. Although he can claim that the threat of tariffs on Mexico helped the step up their plans to help him curb immigration, Trump's tariffs are still to yield any economic success stories.
特朗普宣称，针对中国的关税政策正在奏效，而且效果不错，他利用中国第二季度GDP增速放缓来为该政策辩护。
Trump has claimed that his tariffs on China are working and working well, using the countries recent slowing GDP growth for the second quarter as vindication of his policies.
但是，尽管美国关税政策已施行一年有余，中国经济却仍然稳中有进。中国国家统计局周一公布的数据显示：中国经济仍以“合理”速度增长——增速是美国的4倍——与中国政府制定的GDP目标一致，即增速区间为6.0%至6.5%。
But despite over a year of tariffs, China's economy is still stable. Monday's data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed the economy is still growing at a "reasonable" rate— four-times faster than the U.S.—and in line with the Chinese government's own GDP target, which ranges from 6.0 percent to 6.5 percent.
▲ 2018年7月5日，美国佐治亚州萨凡纳港，一辆卡车经过一堆40英尺高，来自中国的集装箱。
A truck passes a stack of 40-foot China Shipping containers at the Port of Savannah in Savannah, Georgia, the United States, July 5, 2018.
中国零售业并未受影响，6月份同比增长9.8%，5月份为8.6%，是自2018年3月以来增速最快的时期。
The Chinese retail sector has not been dented, with a 9.8 percent year-on-year increase in June, up from 8.6 percent in May, the sector's fastest growth since March 2018.
虽然第二季度工业总产值比第一季度有所下降，但6月份工业产值较5月份同比增长了6.3%。国家统计局发言人毛盛勇表示，“尽管外部不确定性因素不断增加，新的下行压力出现，但经济增长基本保持不变。”
Industrial output also rose by 6.3 percent year-on-year in June compared to May and although overall industrial output growth dropped in the second quarter compared to the first, Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the NBS, said that "growth remained on track despite increasing external uncertainties and new downward growth pressure".
随着就业稳定和新的支持措施不断出台，包括解决政府债务风险、增加基础设施投资和货币扩张政策，政策制定者相信中国经济足够强劲，能够承受特朗普关税的影响。
With employment stable and new support measures including resolving government debt risks, increasing infrastructure investment and monetary expansion, policy makers are confident the economy is robust enough to withstand the effects of Trump's tariffs.
特朗普的关税计划会对美国经济产生怎样的不利影响，经济学家和商界领袖则确信得多。
Economists and business leaders are far more certain of the negative effects the president's tariff games are having on the American economy.
特朗普宣称中国在支付关税，但伦敦皇家资产管理公司特雷弗•格雷瑟姆表示中国是不会支付特朗普要求的关税的。他在推特中反驳道：“关税是由进口商——实际上是由美国纳税人支付的”。
China is not paying for the tariffs, according to Trevor Greetham at the Royal London Asset Management, who tweeted in response to Trump's claims that "tariffs are paid by the importer – U.S. taxpayers in this instance."
▲ 美国华盛顿州的一位农民正在运输苹果。苹果在中国的电子商务平台上很受欢迎。
A farmer in the U.S. state of Washington transports apples, which are popular on China's e-commerce platforms.
美国外交关系委员会最近发布的一篇报告显示，2018年对中国征收关税仅给美国带回80亿美元，“这是特朗普总统宣称的一小部分”，甚至远没有对美国农民的补贴多。
The U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) agrees, claiming having recently released a report showing China tariffs only brought in $8 billion in 2018," a small fraction of what the president asserts", and no where near the amount being paid in subsidies to American farmers.
周一特朗普发推特回应中国GDP增长之后不久，亚特兰大联邦储备银行发推强调，第二季度美国的实际GDP增长也出现滑落，而且滑落幅度远大于中国，已经低至1.4%。
Not long after Trump's initial tweet in response to China's GDP growth on Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta tweeted to highlight that America's own real GDP growth for the second quarter had also reduced but far more dramatically than China's, down to 1.4 percent.
事实上，特朗普的关税政策不仅没有扭转贸易逆差，反而使之恶化了。三月份的报告显示，2018年，关税政策将逆差扩大至6210亿美元，为十年来最高，与金融危机期间经济运行惨淡时的数据相同。2018年，美国单在货物贸易方面的逆差已经高达8787亿美元，远高于2008年贸易逆差8162亿美元的记录。
In fact, Trump's tariffs have not only failed to reduce the deficit but have exacerbated the problem, with reports in March showing it had widened in 2018 to a ten-year high at $621 billion, the same as the bleak years during the financial crisis. Its deficit in goods trade, among others, shot up to $ 878.7 billion in 2018, considerably higher than the previous peak of $816.2 billion in 2008.
特朗普的关税政策在商业领袖中也同样不受欢迎，他们曾劝告特朗普放弃加征关税。比如美国烈性酒委员会就不看好特朗普的关税计划，并于最近向特朗普发出警告，称关税政策可能影响美国国内就业，伤害消费者。
His tariffs are just as unpopular with business leaders who have warned the president against the measures, with the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States the latest to warn that they may harm both jobs and consumers in the U.S..
▲ 一名外国人在中国东部山东省烟台市近距离观察葡萄。
A foreigner gets a closer look at the grapes in Yantai, East China's Shandong province.
“我们强烈反对将蒸馏产品纳入拟制定的报复清单，”由于担心欧盟会报复特朗普的关税政策，发言人丽萨·霍金斯这样回应道。
"We strongly oppose the inclusion of distilled products in the proposed retaliation list," said spokeswoman Lisa Hawkins, in response to fears of EU retaliation from Trump's tariffs.
霍金斯表示，“美国企业中的农民、供应商以及零售商均已受到关键贸易伙伴对美国烈性酒实施报复性关税的严重影响，特朗普这些额外的关税将带来更多危害。”
"U.S. companies - from farmers to suppliers to retailers - are already being negatively impacted by the imposition of retaliatory tariffs by key trading partners on certain U.S. distilled spirits. These additional tariffs will only inflict further harm,"she said.
特朗普的贸易战正在全面影响美国经济的各个领域。因为游客对特朗普的政策表示不满，使旅游业受到重创，根据中国国家旅游局统计，2018年赴美旅游的中国游客下降了5.7个百分点，这是15年来的首次下降。中国游客平均每趟旅行花费6700美元，几乎比其他国家的游客消费水准高50%，这使得美国旅游业的损失更加沉重。
All areas of the American economy are being affected by Trump's tariff wars. The tourism industry has been hit hard as tourists recoil at the president's policies. Chinese travelers to the U.S. were down 5.7 percent in 2018 according to the National Travel and Tourism Office, the first drop in fifteen years. Chinese tourists spend an average of $6,700 per trip, approximately 50 percent more than the average international tourist, making their loss even more heavily felt.
特朗普的关税计划对中国不起作用，却给美国经济造成危害，这种局面使得放弃关税计划理所当然。
With Trump's tariffs proving ineffective in China and detrimental to the American economy, abandoning his use of tariffs would be logical.
但是特朗普非常顽固。他于周二声明，只要他想，他就会对自中国进口的商品征收额外关税。
But Trump is stubborn. On Tuesday he stated additional tariffs on Chinese imports could be implemented if he wanted.
特朗普说：“只要我们愿意，对中国征收关税之路还能继续走下去。只要我们愿意，美国还可以对3250亿美元（的货物）征收关税。”
"We have a long way to go as far as tariffs where China is concerned, if we want. We have another $325 billion we can put a tariff on, if we want," Trump said.
不同于以往的关税，那些针对消费品，如服装、玩具、电子产品和家用电器的关税，一旦征收，将扼杀消费者及企业信心，使股市更加混乱。
These would target finished consumer products such as clothing, toys, electronics and appliances, unlike the previous tariffs, and if enacted, could kill consumer and business confidence, as well derail the stock market even further.
瑞银投行估计，如果特朗普对从中国进口的所有消费品提高25%的关税，美国GDP增长将会降低1.2个百分点，引发美国经济衰退。
Investment bank UBS estimates that if Trump targeted all consumer imports from China with a 25 percent tariff, GDP growth could be cut by about 1.2 percentage points, coming close to sparking a recession in the United States.
继续特朗普的全球关税恶战可能会打破平衡点，迫使总统自己及其支持者反思，关税战是否值得。
Continuing his world tariff vendetta could tilt the balance to breaking point, leaving the president and the people at his rallies wondering if his tariffs had at all been worth it.
特朗普宣称，“贸易战是好事，很容易赢”，但是距离大选仅剩一年多的时间，诸多困难接踵而至，关税战只会使这些困难变得更加棘手。
Trump has stated that "trade wars are good and easy to win", but with an election just over a year away and further obstacles to pass, his tariffs are making them instead look very very difficult.
作者 / 托马斯·斯格贝尔
Author / Thomas Scott-Bell
翻译 / 陈培瑶
编辑 / 董翎依
图片 / 网络
美编 / 高铭
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